There are two possible ways to predict the future.
1. Take what currently exists and imagine improvements.
2. Take what currently exists and imagine replacements.
This is the difference between refinement and revolution. Take a device like smartphones. Are they are an improvement? Well you could argue they are just improved phones but actually they replaced land line phones so that makes them a revolution.
Each revolution in technology tends to unlock other advances. This used to take a long time but now it happens more rapidly because our science instruments are being improved and also because knowledge gets around much faster than it used to.
All of this leads to the Law of Accelerating Returns as defined by Ray Kurzweil. This means that technological progress tends to accelerate over time. As I like to put it, we are linear minds in an exponential time.
Ray Kurzweil tends to look at the future in revolutionary ways.
Imagine if we can use the cloud as an extension of our brain capacity! All of this is why I think that mass education in it’s current form is going to be replaced, not just improved. Back in 2011 I asked if mass education as reached the point of diminishing returns. It is becoming more clear to me that it has. We spend more money on mass education for essentially no improvement. Technology like Ray talks about may go around the problem.