Posted by: crudbasher | November 15, 2010

Garnter’s Newest Hype Cycle

2010 Hype Cycle

Garnter has released their newest Hype Cycle map.  They claim that technology goes through this cycle from conception to adoption.  I tend to agree with their theory.  What is interesting is if you look at this diagram you will see how long they think each technology will take to become widely adopted.  I probably agree with them on most of it with a few exceptions.  Here are my thoughts and how it can apply to Education.

  • 3D TVs. I have said previously that I don’t see much point to 3D TVs right now.  They are mostly hype and sales are proving me right.  That bubble appears ready to burst.
  • Video Telepresence.  Now this has large potential for use in the classroom and elsewhere.  They say 2-5 years.  That’s probably right, mostly because of network bandwidth imitations, not hardware issues.
  • Speech to Speech Translation.  Hmm I think this might be faster than 5-10 years.  The military is working really hard on this one.  I would put this one into the 2 year catagory.
  • I don’t see how Internet TV and Consumer Generated Media are two catagories.  Internet TV depends on Consumer Gen Media.
  • Augmented Reality.  This one is probably less than 5 years out. As soon as there is a workable Head Mounted Display it will happen quickly.

Overall a really interesting list.  In the link below, there is more discussion.

  • Some thoughts on the hype cycle

    tags: garnter hype technology

    • Leading global analyst firm Gartner has released its annual Hype Cycle report and it’s thought provoking to see where these high-end specialists think various emerging technologies are in their path to mainstream adoption. Tablets, microblogging, cloud computing, machine/brain interfaces (!) and many more are included in this year’s report. Gartner believes that emerging technologies get hyped, overhyped, then face crashing disillusionment and are later finally understood as productive, mainstream parts of the world.

      Companies around the world pay $2,000 to read in-depth annual reports about the viability of each of these particular markets. Then they make buying and development decisions based on what they read. What do you think of this year’s assessments?

       

       

Posted from Diigo. The rest of my favorite links are here.

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Responses

  1. It is always neat to look at these projections. I am also amazed at how some technologies sneak in and take over before any of us knows what hit us.
    As for 3d tv, I tend to agree, that technology used as it is currently doesn’t seem like it will be widely adopted. Maybe the technology will morph into something more useful.

    • Yeah I have tried to see if I am missing something but I don’t see it right now. There were actually people who thought there would be no purpose for color films too. They thought black and white was perfectly ok. 🙂

  2. It’s interesting that you believe that the mainstream public would be interested in wearing a head mounted display, when, as you point out, 3D TVs are not seeing massive consumer adoption. I think that there are several reasons for the sluggish uptake of 3D TV systems.

    1) People have a hard enough time finding the remote now they have to find the glasses too.
    2) The glasses are expensive. The more family you have the more money you have to drop.
    3) The glasses are not particularly fashionable.
    4) People are unwilling to drop the HDTV they just bought to buy a new television for 3D alone ( particularly in a down turned economy.)
    5) There is a feeling that TVs that don’t require glasses (auto stereoscopic) are just around the corner and people don’t want to get burned by obsolete televisions again.
    6) The 3D content doesn’t seem to be hitting full stride.

    • Hey Tom thanks for stopping by! Let me clarify my statement about AR.
      The key word is “workable”. As you no doubt remember we have had HMDs around for well over a decade but they had many limitations. They were heavy, needed to be plugged in, the graphics were poor etc…

      What I define as workable is as light as a regular pair of glasses, and you can use them to project graphics on the real world. I think of all the reasons you listed above, the one I think is the most compelling is number 4. I don’t think most people find 3d enough of a reason to buy a new tv just for that. It just doesn’t add enough to the existing experience.

      By contrast, if there was a workable (see above) glasses based HMD for augmented reality that would provide a brand new experience that you can’t get at all right now.

      I agree with all of your points about why 3d isn’t being adopted. What do you think of my reasoning about why AR will be? Thanks much for adding to the discussion!

  3. I think it comes down to the “brand new experience” that you’re talking about being so phenomenal that it changes the way people live.

    There will be special applications here and there. My friend already has a pair of snow goggles with a built in GPS and HUD, but that’s not going to translate to mass market. In order to get mass market penetration there will need to be a revolutionary application.

    • Yes you are totally right, it will need that “killer” app. That part is hard to foresee right now though. Somebody like Apple could make a good experience I think. Give it some time to mature and we will see.

      Thanks for commenting!

      • Oh, no! You’ve gone Apple? 😉

        Good to chat with you again my friend!

  4. Oh, I also think that there is a difference between Internet TV and Consumer Generated Media. To me Internet TV is professionally produced content distributed over the internet ( Hulu, Netflix, CBS.com, etc ) and consumer generated media (youtube, instructables, levels for Little Big Planet, … ) will always be different in quality.

    I guess one could argue that Internet TV is kind of blurring with broadcast and cable TV. But I think the major difference between internet TV and broadcast TV is scheduling.

    • I would have to disagree a little bit on Internet TV. It’s not just TV delivered via net, it’s a content aggregator and search tool. What it does is put established companies like Hulu and CBS on the same level as youtube videos and other user content. From an interface perspective they are the same kind of thing. This is huge in my mind. It’s content on demand and it doesn’t matter where the content is coming from. That takes a lot of the power away from the big networks (which is why they are blocking Google TV for now).

      Oh and I’m definitely not an Apple fanboi! I do appreciate that they do pay close attention to the user experience. Really I want my SGI with command line back! (j/k)

      Good to chat with you again Tom and congrats on the game! I’ve been watching on FB.

      • I see your concern about the leveling of the playing field, but content is king. Even on cable television there has been user generated content, cable access shows in the style at which Wayne’s World poked fun. As long as the final display unit is not usurping the original advertisements I think it should be status quo. The networks may have a concern now that their shows number of viewings can be accurately tracked as opposed to estimated through ratings services. There may be some discrepancy there which causes unrest.

        On the other hand I think that local affiliates are kind of hosed by internet TV, which may mean bad things for local news and local morning shows.

  5. Heh I would not cry over losing local news shows. I do agree that being able to track actual viewers will be disruptive to established business models. I also agree that advertising is the key here. We will revisit this in about 5 years and see what happens!


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